As a new round of direct talks between Israelis and Palestinians gets underway at the urging of the United States, the continuation of Washington’s unsuccessful policy toward Gaza risks sabotaging diplomatic efforts. U.S. policy on Palestine aims at isolating Hamas, and therefore Gaza, in pursuit of two goals. First, the United States hopes to broker a deal between the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership and Israel that would return control of Gaza to the PA. Second, it hopes to undermine Hamas’s ability to govern, on the assumption that Hamas’s failure will undermine its support in Gaza, thus facilitating the reintegration of the West Bank and Gaza under the control of the Palestinian Authority controlled by Fatah.
But a close look at Hamas in Gaza suggests that this policy has little chance of achieving either objective in the foreseeable future. Hamas has managed to provide a modest degree of governance in Gaza and shows no sign of imminent collapse. It also retains some support in Gaza and, as importantly, among residents of the West Bank. Indeed, it is clear that Hamas has enough control in Gaza and maintains sufficient support that it could prevent a popular referendum on a peace settlement from being held—should an agreement be reached between Israel and the Palestinian negotiators.
Taghreed El-Khodary is a visiting scholar in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment, where her research focuses on the future of Gaza, as well as a Heinrich Boell Fellow. Since 2001, she has been based in the Gaza Strip, reporting on political developments for the New York Times and serving as a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group.
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http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=view&id=41593
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